Most marketers and advertising people in India today obsess about the young.
And rightly so, considering that more than 44% of India's population is in the age group 20 to 39 years. When you take the top 8 metros the percentage of 20 to 39 year olds climbs to almost 49%, reflecting the on going migration of the young to the cities.
However there is life beyond the young.
Harry S. Dent, an investment advisor, believes that across the world the age group of 46-50 are the marquee spenders and in fact tracks the number of people from age 46 to 50 in countries around the world, as a proxy for growth in consumer spending in each economy. (See Changing Global Demographics, H.S. Dent Publishing, 2007.)
Tammy Erikson, a Mckinsey Award-winning author in her blog post entitled "What Demographics Tell Us About The Economy" qualifies Dent's hypothesis in the following comment:
"Clearly looking only at the 46-50 year age group is a narrow cut at spending patterns - people typically begin to spend more throughout their thirties and early forties. However, an indisputable fact is that the big bulge of high-spending Boomers is moving out of peak spending years, replaced by members of the much smaller Generation X.
And, to add to the conservative picture going forward, members of Generation X have already proven to be cautious spenders. Between 2000 and 2004, the average U.S. household boosted its spending by 4 percent. But the vast majority of this growth came from Boomers; the spending of householders aged 25 to 34 did not increase at all and the spending of householders aged 35 to 44 increased only 1.8 percent, less than half the average rate."
Dent's hypothesis would have as look at the 46 to 50 age group while Erikson would want us to expand the segment to 40 to 50 year olds.
Erikson's analysis of the Baby Boomer Generation (those born between 1946 and 1961 in the US) and Generation X (those born between the years 1961-1981- the 3 year overlap with the Boomer's notwithstanding)is partially relevant to India.
Many market research studies have confirmed that in India as in the US, the young of the 70's & the 80's had a more liberal attitude to life than today's young.
However the difference is that in the US the Baby Boomer generation enjoyed unparalleled economic growth while the corresponding generation in India endured the wonders of the License Raj age.
However, I believe,the importance in India of the 40-50 years cohort lies not in generational attitude but in the numbers.
The 40 to 50 years cohort is about 14% of the all India population and 15% of the metro population. Within the 40 to 50 years cohort, the top end of the socio-economic classification in India, SEC A, account for 15%.
Are marketers paying enough attention to this key segment?
The archetypical 40-50 years brand is Raymond's, the high-end suitings brand. However a time-line study of Raymond's ads (partial archive of Raymond's TVCs)seems to suggest that the brand is keen to handover the torch to the young.
Is Raymond's falling prey to our collective obsession with the young?
The key to a brand are brand values
Brand values while being deeper than lifestyle symbols and attitudes are, by design or not, keyed to life stage.
One might argue that the Nike value of the "can-do" spirit is a value that transcends all life stage. However an equally valid argument would be that the 'can-do" value is keyed in more to the young than the middle-aged.Not surprisingly Nike's brand imagery is uber young.
Does that leave the market open for a middle-aged focused activity-wear brand? Now that's a thought.
The larger point is that brand loyalty does not guarantee a transition across age groups.
In fact it is almost guaranteed that brands do not transcend life stage as brand values unlike the eternal values are keyed to a life-stage.
Can a brand be keyed to eternal values? That again is a thought worthy of exploration.
However returning to the central argument, since brand loyalty will not almost always survive the transition to the next life stage, Indian marketers and advertising people must pay a lot of attention to building and nurturing brands focused at the 40 to 50 years age group.
Because today's young will be the next decades 40 to 50 years cohort and the 40-50 years age group will peak at about 30% of the urban population around 2020.
A Raymond's must preserve it's brand values that appeal so well to the 40-50 years cohort. It has a substantial market today and, hold your breath, a 200% explosion waiting to happen over the next decade.
And going by the same logic there is tremendous business potential for a few Raymond's in every product and service category imaginable.
This is an exciting product/ service and brand design and marketing task waiting to be undertaken.
And I am sure as this recession takes hold and many a marketer and strategist returning to the thoughtful mode (instead of the "follow-the-gravy-train" mode that had everyone hooked over the last decade or so) this great task will find its thinkers and doers.
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